Precursors of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka (according to data from 2005-2022)
GC2024-SG035
The Kamchatka Peninsula is one of the most earthquake-prone regions of Russia. Here,
earthquakes with magnitudes MW up to 8–9 are possible, which accompanied by tsunamis and
shaking up to 9–10 points on the MSK-64 scale in continental areas. Over the period of detailed
seismological observations since 1962, the average frequency of earthquakes with МW≥6.8 is
0.47 events per year (28 events in 60 years). The average frequency of earthquakes with MW ≥
7.5 is 0.17 year-1 (10 events in 60 years).
Seismological, geophysical, geochemical and hydrogeological observations in order to search for
earthquake precursors have been carried out in the Kamchatka Peninsula area from the late
1970s to the present. Most of the stations for “non-seismological” observations of precursors are
located in a small area of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic polygon (PKP).
The priority of the KB GS RAS activity is the development of observation networks for
seismicity, geophysical and geochemical parameters in order to search for precursors and
develop methods for predicting strong earthquakes. From 1998 to the present, the Kamchatka
branch of the Russian Expert Council for Earthquake Forecasting (KB REC), whose competence
includes the collection and analysis of all seismic forecast information, has been operates under
the KB GS RAS. Seismic hazard assessment in the form of issuing long-term, medium-term and
short-term earthquake forecasts is carried out through expert analysis of the results of
comprehensive geophysical monitoring in the territory of the Kamchatka Peninsula [1].
This work is a continuation of the authors’ research on the manifestations of the precursors of
strong earthquakes in the area of the Kamchatka Peninsula [2, 3]. The data on seismological,
geophysical and geochemical precursors before seven earthquakes 2005–2022 with МW = 6.6–
7.7 at depths up to 180 km were examined taking into account their composition according to
various types of observations and duration (time of manifestation before each earthquake). An
increase in the number of precursors with increasing parameter МW/lgdh, where dh is the
hypocentral distance of the earthquake to the center of the PKP (km) is detected, which is an
indicator of the integrated manifestation of precursors before the strongest and closest
earthquakes in the area under consideration.
It is discussed the need to study the phenomenon of integrated manifestation of precursors,
diagnosed in real time, for use in predicting the time of a strong earthquake in the Petropavlovsk-
Yelizovo agglomeration area, where most of the population of the Kamchatka Kari lives. It is
proposed to use materials from the archives of expert councils on earthquake forecasting
operating in the Kamchatka Krai to create a database of regular forecast conclusions on
individual observation methods, subsequent formalization and retrospective analysis of the
properties of the complex manifestation of precursors in connection with earthquakes that have
occurred. This direction of seismic prognostic research will contribute to obtaining more definite
estimates regarding the parameters of earthquakes and the time of their occurrence when a
complex of precursors is detected, diagnosed in real time.
Funding. The work was carried out according to the project of the Russian Science Foundation
No. 22-17-00125 “Physical analysis of seismoelectromagnetic phenomena at the Kamchatka
geodynamic test site: modernization of the observation system and theoretical modeling”.
[1] V.N. Chebrov, V.A. Saltykov and Yu.K. Serafimova, Forecasting earthquakes in Kamchatka.
Based on materials from the work of the Kamchatka branch of the Russian Expert Council on
earthquake forecasting, seismic hazard and risk assessment in 1998–2009, Svetoch Plus;
Moscow, 2011
[2] Kopylova G.N. and Serafimova Yu.K. Geophysical research. 10 4 (2009) 17
[3] Serafimova Yu.K. and Kopylova G.N. Volcanology and Seismology. 4 (2010) 3