Dynamics of heating demand for various cities in Russia based on climate data

Radiative forcing significantly impacts temperature regimes, directly determining the energy demand for building heating. The key indicator for assessing this demand is the heating degree days (HDD) index, calculated as the sum of deviations of the daily mean temperature from the baseline level of 18°C over the heating period [1].

This study presents a comparative analysis of HDD trends calculated using two parameters: surface air temperature (traditional approach) and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET)—a comprehensive indicator accounting for temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Based on climate data [2] from 1977–2019, HDD values were calculated for 29 Russian cities across diverse climate zones. The rate of change in heating demand was assessed through linear trends of HDD (°C/year).

The highest rates of HDD decrease (10–16°C/year) were recorded in cities of the European part of Russia (Moscow, St. Petersburg), linked to intensified warming in temperate latitudes. Pronounced HDD dynamics (10–12°C/year) were observed in Far Eastern cities with a moderate monsoon climate (Blagoveshchensk, Khabarovsk). Medium values (6–9°C/year) correspond to Eastern Siberia and Transbaikalia with a sharply continental climate (Irkutsk, Chita). Minimal rates (1–5°C/year) characterize southern Western Siberia with a continental climate (Omsk, Novosibirsk).

For several cities, a trend of HDD trend intersections was identified, suggesting a potential decrease in heating demand per unit area by 2060 relative to other regions. Accounting for microclimatic factors (PET) intensifies the negative HDD trend by 10–20% compared to the traditional method, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to energy consumption assessment.

The study was supported by the State Assignment No. 125021001827-3 “Analysis and Modeling of the Dynamics of Environmental Processes under Changing Climate Conditions.”

1. Belova I.N. et al 2018 Energy Procedia 149 373-379

2. Konstantinov P. I. et al. North Eurasian Thermal Comfort Indices Dataset (NETCID): New gridded database for the biometeorological studies. - Environ. Res. Lett., 2022, 1708500; https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Thermal_comfort_indices_derived_from_ERA-Interim_reanalysis_for_Northern_Eurasia/12629861.