Anthropogenic Heat Flux Due to the Heating Period in Cities Located in the Russian Federation North of 57°N and in Siberia

An alternative method is proposed for estimating the share of anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) due to heating season using a “bottom-up” scheme where AHF is calculated for each building based on current construction standards for thermal insulation and energy consumption. The AHF depends on the temperature difference between the indoor and outdoor air. The total AHF for a city is obtained by summing the contributions from all buildings. For this purpose building models were constructed for 33 cities located in Russia north of 57°N and in Siberia using data from the OpenStreetMap web-mapping platform, Yandex Maps website, and the GIS Housing and Utilities. The volumes and areas of building envelopes are calculated.

In cities located at high latitudes anthropogenic heat emissions in November, December, and January may be comparable to the absorbed solar radiation. Under clear-sky conditions, the total solar radiation on a horizontal surface at latitudes 60°, 64°, and 68°N is in November – 97, 56, and 14 MJ/m²; December – 39, 0, and 0 MJ/m²; and January – 70, 29, and 0 MJ/m² respectively. Average monthly AHF estimates calculated over the heating season based on daily mean temperatures during 2013–2023 for urbanized areas in cities located at 61–62°N (e.g., Surgut and Yakutsk), 64.5–66.5°N (Arkhangelsk and Salekhard), 67.5–67.6°N (Vorkuta, Apatity, and Naryan-Mar), and 68.5–69.5°N (Murmansk and Norilsk), fall within the following ranges (in MJ/m²): November 1.58–5.28, 1.07–3.41, 1.14–2.99, and 1.25–5.79, December 1.82–6.71, 1.35 –3.95, 1.27–3.41, and 1.44–6.85 January: 2.00–6.82, 1.46–4.28, 1.35–4.88, and 1.60–7.14. These estimates highlight the importance of accounting for AHF in northern latitudes.

Three algorithms for calculating AHF are considered. The first is based on the concept of the standard thermal resistance of building envelope structures. The second relies on the normalized value of the specific thermal protection characteristic of a building. The third uses the normalized specific heat energy consumption for heating and ventilation. AHF is estimated from both the administrative and urbanized areas, with the highest values observed in the urbanized area, which is typically the most densely built-up and usually does not exceed 10% of a city’s administrative area. The AHF density released at the average temperature of the heating period from the urbanised territory and estimated by the three algorithms, respectively, is in the ranges 13.7–19.1, 21.7–31.5, 31.8–55.9 W/m². Anthropogenic energy (in PJ) from the urbanised territory according to all algorithms is in the interval, for example, for St. Petersburg 66.8–151.2; Murmansk, Norilsk, Apatite, Naryan-Mar and Dudinka 32.9–69.9; Novosibirsk and Yekaterinburg 20.3–55.0; Chelyabinsk, Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Perm and Tyumen 12.8–38.2; Surgut and Yakutsk 5.9–16.8; Arkhangelsk 4.7–11.2; Vorkuta, Salekhard, Tiksi and Dikson 21.5–56.4.

The AHF density in the direction to the underlying surface from the lower boundary of buildings during the heating period for the settlements located north of 66.5ºN is in the range of 1.20–1.96 W/m². The values of anthropogenic energy averaged for the heating periods 2013-2018 and 2018-2023 are presented, as well as and maps of the spatial distribution of AHF density at the average temperature of the heating period.

Given the uncertainties in the thermal properties of buildings, the use of an averaged AHF estimate derived from all three algorithms is recommended.